Cindicator, a tokenized fintech company developing hybrid intelligence for effective asset management has announced the results of a report that summarizes the insights from 111,000 analysts on its platform.
Over a 9-month period from September 2017 through May 2018, analysts answered questions forecasting the asset prices of Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and various altcoins (including EOS, BCH, TRX, ETC, DASH, ZEC, XVG, HSR, QTUM, ZIL, XMR, BNB, IOT, ICX) . The resulting answers approximate changes in the collective moods of crypto investors before, during and after the record peaks in prices for Bitcoin and Ether.
Key findings from Cindicator’s newly-published data include:
- Investors need two months to adjust to new trends in crypto markets:
○ In January and February the collective mood was bullish, forecasting growth despite the downward trend;
○ The mood adjusted only in March, after the overall market cap declined from the January high of $835 bn to below $300 bn in February;
○ This fits with other asset classes: it takes 60–100 days to adapt to a different long-term trend.
- The public view on ETH is strongly polarized:
○ Collective mood was very divided in March when ETH dropped by more than 50% in USD;
○ It appears that higher volatility leads to greater mood swings.
- The public mood after Consensus 2018 became slightly more pessimistic. It appears that expectations of a post-Consensus upswing were not met. The market was waiting for strong positive news, yet there was none. This already became apparent during the event, when opinions were more divided.
Over 111,000 people from 135+ countries use Cindicator’s mobile (iOS and Android) and web apps to make daily forecasts on a wide range of crypto and traditional assets. These analysts receive points for correct answers and lose points for incorrect answers. At the end of every month, analysts receive rewards in ETH if they have earned at least 1 point.
Analysts’ answers are enhanced by machine learning algorithms and a neural network to create indicators that predict market events with >69% accuracy. These indicators are used by 5,000 traders who hold Cindicator’s CND token. In an experiment, a group of traders generated a return of 21.53% in eight weeks.
Cindicator co-founder and CEO Mike Brusov said: “Our collective forecasting platform with over 111,000 analysts from around the world gives a unique view into the mind of the crowd. Since September, the number of data points we generate every month has increased by over 30 times. While this data is useful on its own, the true value is in applying AI to enhance the collective wisdom to create predictive analytics. ”
Cindicator’s Data Scientist Alexander Osipenko said: “Our data is truly unique because it shows the crowd’s expectations. While we see that many are heavily biased, we also keep the track record for every analyst and apply different machine learning models to predict the probability of each forecast being correct. We now have over 30+ different machine learning models and a fully-functioning neural network and the accuracy continues to increase with additional data.”